Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies     

Vincent Artus  Louis J. Durlofsky  Jérôme Onwunalu  Khalid Aziz 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(4):389-404

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.  相似文献   

Study of geothermal water intrusion due to groundwater exploitation in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

E. Leticia Flores-Márquez  Gabriel Jiménez-Suárez  Raymundo G. Martínez-Serrano  René E. Chávez  Daniel Silva Pérez 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(7):1216-1230

Significant intrusion of geothermal water into fresh groundwater takes place in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico. The decline in the potentiometric surface due to the overexploitation of the groundwater induces this intrusion. This hydrological system comprises three aquifers located in Plio-Quaternary volcanic sediments and Mesozoic calcareous rocks. The hydraulic balance of the aquifer shows that the annual output exceeds the natural inputs by 12 million m³. Between 1973 and 2002, a drop in the potentiometric surface, with an 80 m cone of depression, was identified in a 5-km-wide area located southwest of the city of Puebla. Chemical analyses performed on water samples since 1990 have shown an increase in total dissolved solids (TDS) of more than 500 mg/L, coinciding with the region showing a cone of depression in the potentiometric surface. A three-dimensional flow and transport model, based on the hydrogeological and geophysical studies, was computed by using the MODFLOW and MT3D software. This model reproduces the evolution of the aquifer system during the last 30 years and predicts for 2010 an additional drawdown in the potentiometric surface of 15 m, and an increase in the geothermal water intrusion.  相似文献   

Catastrophic debris flows near Machu Picchu village (Aguas Calientes), Peru   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

V. Vilímek  J. Klimeš  J. Vlcko  R. Carreño 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(7):1041-1052

Slope movements together with intensive river erosion and the following accumulation are the leading processes in the landscape evolution in the area of Machu Picchu village (former Aguas Calientes), which is located close to the Machu Picchu Sanctuary. Debris flows affect not only the bottoms of valleys or canyons, but also debris fans at the termini of the drainage basins, which are heavily inhabited at some places. The most recent event in the Machu Picchu village occurred in April 2004, but several others were documented in a broader area in the last 50 years. The field inspections at Machu Picchu (May and September 2004; June and September 2005) together with oral testimony revealed the nature and behavior of the debris flow. Machu Picchu village can be assessed as a zone with high landslide risk in relation to its urban development. Despite that, the village recorded a rapid growth (threefold population increase) without urban control within the past two decades. Precipitation, which is the main triggering factor of the debris flows, and natural hazard management of the Machu Picchu village are discussed in this paper.  相似文献   

The Spačice eclogite: constraints on the P–T–t history of the Gföhl granulite terrane, Moldanubian Zone, Bohemian Massif     

L. G. Medaris Jr.  E. D. Ghent  H. F. Wang  J. H. Fournelle  E. Jelínek 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2006,86(3-4):203-220

Summary In the Kutná Hora Complex, the Běstvina Formation, which is similar to Gf?hl granulite, contains eclogite that has escaped widespread retrograde recrystallization. The eclogite assemblage, garnet + omphacite + quartz + rutile ± plagioclase, yields an estimate for peak metamorphic conditions of 18–20 kbar and 835–935 °C, which is comparable to that determined from felsic granulite, 14–20 kbar and 900–1000 °C. Garnet in eclogite exhibits both prograde and retrograde compositional zoning, from which constraints on thermal history of the Gf?hl terrane can be derived by diffusion modelling. At 900 °C, a garnet grain of 800–1000 μm radius would homogenize in 7.5–11.7 million years, but the existence of compositional gradients on a length scale of 100–200 μm suggests that the duration of peak metamorphism may have been limited to ∼500,000 years. Diffusion modelling of retrograde zoning in garnet yields a cooling rate of 150–100 °C/m.y. for a radius of 800–1000 μm and initial temperature of 900 °C. The relatively brief duration of high-pressure/high-temperature metamorphism and rapid cooling and exhumation of the Gf?hl terrane may be a consequence of lithospheric delamination during Early Carboniferous collision of Bohemia (Teplá-Barrandia) and Moldanubia (Franke, 2000).  相似文献   

Reconstructing hydrological variability from testate amoebae analysis in Carpathian peatlands     

C. Schnitchen  D. J. Charman  E. Magyari  M. Braun  I. Grigorszky  B. Tóthmérész  M. Molnár  Zs. Szántó 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(1):1-17

Peatlands offer the potential for high resolution records of water balance over Holocene timescales, yet this potential is under-exploited in many areas of the world. Within Europe, peatlands are mostly confined to areas north of 55° N, but several areas of southern and eastern Europe contain small peatlands which may be suitable for palaeoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper we test the potential of peatlands in the Carpathian region for deriving quantified estimates of water table changes using testate amoebae analysis. A training set for palaeohydrological reconstruction from testate amoebae assemblages was obtained by collecting surface samples from 13 peatlands, including 9 from Hungary and 4 from Transylvania (Romania). Using a simple measure of mean annual water tables estimated from staining of PVC tape, we found that some peatlands were heavily influenced by runoff and groundwater, and were therefore not suitable as modern analogues of ombrotrophic climatically sensitive sites. The relationship between the testate amoebae assemblages in the modern samples and the environmental variables was explored using CCA. The CCA biplot showed that the most important variables are depth to water table and moisture content, confirming that hydrology is a key control on taxon distribution. pH was a secondary gradient. A transfer function for % moisture and depth to water table was established and applied to fossil assemblages from a sequence from Fenyves-tető, Transylvania, Romania. The reconstructed water table shows a number of variations which have parallels with other palaeoclimatic records from Europe and the North Atlantic prominent phases of higher water tables are associated with the periods 8000–8300 cal BP, 3000–2500 cal BP and after 600 cal BP. We suggest that these were periods of particular intensification of westerly airflow which affected eastern Europe as well as western and central Europe.  相似文献   

Cyclic variations in the differential rotation of the solar corona     

O. G. Badalyan  V. N. Obridko  J. Sýkora 《Astronomy Reports》2006,50(4):312-324

The rotation of the solar corona is analyzed using the original database on the brightness of the FeXIV 530.3 nm coronal green line covering six recent activity cycles. The rate of the differential rotation of the corona depends on the cycle phase. In decay phases, there are only small differences in the rotation, which are similar to that of a rigid body. The differences are more significant (though less pronounced than in the photosphere) during rise phases, just before maxima, and sometimes at maxima. The total rate of the coronal rotation is represented as a superposition of two, i.e., fast and slow modes. The synodic period of the fast mode is approximately 27 days at the equator and varies slightly with time. This mode displays weak differences in rotation and is most pronounced in the middle of decay phases. The slow mode is manifested only at high latitudes during the rise phases of activity, and displays a mean period of 31 days. The relative contribution of each mode to the total rotational rate is determined as a function of time and heliographic latitude. These results indicate that the structure of the velocity field in the convective zone must also vary with time. This conclusion can be verified by helioseismology measurements in the near future.  相似文献   

The Removal of Dissolved Metals by Hydroxysulphate Precipitates during Oxidation and Neutralization of Acid Mine Waters, Iberian Pyrite Belt   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

J. Sánchez España  E. López Pamo  E. Santofimia Pastor  J. Reyes Andrés  J. A. Martín Rubí 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2006,12(3):269-298

This study examines the removal of dissolved metals during the oxidation and neutralization of five acid mine drainage (AMD) waters from La Zarza, Lomero, Esperanza, Corta Atalaya and Poderosa mines (Iberian Pyrite Belt, Huelva, Spain). These waters were selected to cover the spectrum of pH (2.2–3.5) and chemical composition (e.g., 319–2,103 mg/L Fe; 2.85–33.3 g/L SO₄⁼) of the IPB mine waters. The experiments were conducted in the laboratory to simulate the geochemical evolution previously recognized in the field. This evolution includes two stages: (1) oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) followed by hydrolysis and precipitation of Fe(III), and (2) progressive pH increase during mixing with fresh waters. Fe(III) precipitates at pH < 3.5 (stages 1 and 2) in the form of schwertmannite, whereas Al precipitates during stage 2 at pH 5.0 in the form of several hydroxysulphates of variable composition (hydrobasaluminite, basaluminite, aluminite). During these stages, trace elements are totally or partially sorbed and/or coprecipitated at different rates depending basically on pH, as well as on the activity of the SO₄⁼ anion (which determines the speciation of metals). The general trend for the metals which are chiefly present as aqueous free cations (Pb²⁺, Zn²⁺, Cu²⁺, Cd²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺) is a progressive sorption at increasing pH. On the other hand, As and V (mainly present as anionic species) are completely scavenged during the oxidation stage at pH < 3.5. In waters with high activities (> 10⁻¹) of the SO ₄⁼ ion, some elements like Al, Zn, Cd, Pb and U can also form anionic bisulphate complexes and be significantly sorbed at pH < 5. The removal rates at pH 7.0 range from around 100% for As, V, Cu and U, and 60–80% for Pb, to less than 20% for Zn, Co, Ni and Mn. These processes of metal removal represent a significant mechanism of natural attenuation in the IPB.  相似文献   

Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors     

Harpa Grímsdóttir  David Mcclung 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):127-153

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified.  相似文献   

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship     

S-S. Xu  A. F. Nieto-Samaniego  S. A. Alaniz-Álvarez  L. G. Velasquillo-Martínez 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(5):841-853

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.  相似文献   

Geometry and accuracy of reflecting points in bistatic satellite altimetry     

J. Kostelecký  J. Klokočník  C.A. Wagner 《Journal of Geodesy》2005,79(8):421-430

The analysis of the time and space distribution of specular (reflecting) points in bistatic altimetry between GPS and CHAMP satellites or SAC-C (taken as examples) is extended from Wagner and Klokočník (2003 J. Geod 77: 128–138). We demonstrate a significantly higher number and density of reflecting points in bistatic altimetry in comparison with traditional monostatic altimetry. After an outline of our older accuracy assessment for the vertical position of the reflecting point, we add a new independent derivation and compare both approaches. We account for orbit errors of both the transmitters (GPS) and receiver (CHAMP) satellites, and the measurement (delay) error. We found that the accuracy of the vertical position of the reflecting point decreases only slowly with increasing off-nadir angle and that the orbit errors must be accounted for if decimeter and better accuracy is required. In this paper, we do not study errors such as state of the ocean, technical parameters of the receiving system, and atmospheric corrections.  相似文献